Category Archives: Market Projections

Transforming World

We live in an evolving world; a transforming world of change and disruption.  Click here for a LinkedIn list of executives with Global Transformation in their title.  This includes executives at AIG, DHL, Hewlett-Packard, IBM, Johnson Controls and other corporations.  There is a Global Transformation Forum (conference) which had 3,000 delegates in 2015.  Deloitte Ireland produced a report in 2010; Global transformation readiness:Is your organization really prepared?

Sectors at risk of disruption

The report A Transforming World by Bank of America Merrill Lynch anticipates changes in the following market sectors/categories/technologies:

  • Appliance manufacturers
  • Big data
  • Cloud computing
  • Credit card companies and other consumer discretionary businesses
  • Crop science and fertilizer producers
  • Custom manufacturing and quick time-to-market design
  • Cybersecurity
  • Digitization
  • Energy
  • Engineering firms that design cutting-edge irrigation systems
  • GDP-sensitive sectors such as technology and industrials
  • Government health care and pension systems (special concern in Japan and Germany)
  • Home-builders
  • Home-improvement retailers
  • Manufacturers of high-end, highly engineered durable goods—including engines, turbines and medical devices
  • Manufacturers of water-treatment equipment
  • Personalized medicine based on genetic testing
  • Producers of the next-generation of biofuels
  • Real estate investment trusts (REITs)
  • Regional banks
  • Robotics
  • Water related industries including new technologies and infrastructure that make it more efficient and less costly to treat and reuse water

The above-projected impacts anticipate market disruptions and business opportunities.

Key disruption issues

A Reuters article by Eric Auchard “Many big companies live in fear for their future in digital age”  describes a study, “Digital Vortex How Digital Disruption Is Redefining Industries“.  The study was conducted by the International Institute for Management Development of Switzerland with funding from Cisco.  Part of the study was the likelihood of disruption in an industry based on:

  1. “Investment in disruption”
  2. “Timing of disruption”
  3. “Means of disruption”
  4. “Impact of disruption”

“Dynamic forces are sweeping across the globe, reshaping our lives and creating a wave of new investment opportunities” is the tag line for A Transforming World a 2015 report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.  “We’re at a rare inflection point,” says Mary Ann Bartels, chief investment officer of Portfolio Strategies at Merrill Lynch.”

The following abstracts from the BoA report are grouped for the reader’s convenience.

R&D

  • “The U.S. spends more on research and development (R&D) than China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan combined, or even the entire European continent. …. American firms account for 75% of the global venture capital market.”

Emerging Technologies

  • “Cutting-edge technologies like robotics, personalized medicine based on genetic testing, cybersecurity, big data, cloud computing, digitization, custom manufacturing and quick time-to-market design  …  are bringing new life to the U.S. economy.”
  • “The number of new energy jobs created could itself be transforming.” Chris Hyzy Chief Investment Officer, U.S. Trust

Rising Emerging Market Middle Class

  • “Emerging markets are now responsible for more than half of global gross domestic product (GDP) growth and 40% of investment worldwide.  ….   manufacturers of high-end, highly engineered durable goods—including engines, turbines and medical devices—should see increasing exports to emerging markets.”

Graying Population

  • “graying nations tend to be at a competitive disadvantage to youthful countries  …  These younger countries include Indonesia and many nations in sub-Saharan Africa.”

Water Related Industries

  • “a diminished freshwater supply could cut the forecast for 2050 global GDP almost in half”  ….  the demand … will potentially benefit  …  crop science and fertilizer producers, engineering firms that design cutting-edge irrigation systems, manufacturers of water-treatment equipment and producers of the next-generation of biofuels.”
  • “57% of the world’s freshwater resources are concentrated in 10 countries: Brazil, Russia, U.S., Canada, China, Colombia, Indonesia, Peru, India and Congo”
  • “1.6 billion people face economic water shortage—where the infrastructure can’t provide a sufficient supply.”  “2.6 billion have no access to proper sanitation.”

Conclusion

Disruption will create business opportunities for startups in a number of sectors and in countries with certain demographics.

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Digital Life in 2025

This Pew Research Center market projection provides “15 Theses About the Digital Future” in 60 pages. The More-Hopeful Theses ”Information sharing over the Internet will be so effortlessly interwoven into daily life that it will become invisible, flowing like electricity, often through machine intermediaries.” page 23 ”The spread of the Internet will enhance global connectivity that fosters…Continue Reading

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